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Are housing prices dropping in Lakewood Ranch? There have been whispers in the real estate community about the market taking a hit and prices coming down. That may be true in some parts of the United States.
But, is it true for the Lakewood Ranch real estate market? Is Lakewood Ranch turning into a buyer’s market??
Let’s find out. For example, I used zip codes 34211 and 34202. Although Lakewood Ranch does not have designated zip codes, the two referenced above account for more than 90% of the housing stock there.
The Lakewood Ranch real estate market does have a season or a busier time of year for sales. Traditionally, this also aligns with “snowbird season,” which is from late December to May.
However, there is one summer month, July, when we get one last push in demand before things slow down in the late summer and fall.
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Knowing the real estate market status for the start of 2025 will help us compare market performance moving into a higher demand period.
🪧Active Listings & Pending Sales in Lakewood Ranch
Housing stock will provide evidence of supply and demand. If there is an oversupply, we could speculate that it would be a buyer’s vs a seller’s market.
Below are the number of active listings broken down by zip code.
As you can see, the number of properties listed for sale exceeds the 5-year average. So, supply is increasing. Plus, the number of pending properties is less than the 5-year average.
These stats are taken from January 2025. This is important because it shows us inventory is higher and less demand is heading into our busy selling season.
But the most crucial question is, will this trend continue into the spring market?
💰Housing Prices in Lakewood Ranch
Are buyers getting better deals on homes here in Lakewood Ranch? For the past two years, real estate in Lakewood Ranch has been in high demand. Multiple offers and buyers paying tens of thousands of dollars over the asking price were common.
Have prices fallen in Lakewood Ranch? We can get an idea by looking at the percentage of $$ taken off of the asking price. This is commonly referred to as the List Price to Sales Price.
There are typically two scenarios that impact this percentage. First, the seller started too high in their asking price and had to take a price reduction to attract a buyer. Second, the buyer was able to negotiate money off of the listing price.
Either way, you can see that there is some room to negotiate.
However, keep in mind that some sellers and listing agents are strategic and price a home to compete against other homes. If the price of the home aligns with the historical sales show, you may not be able to negotiate off of the price.
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🎯Factors that Influence Florida’s Real Estate Market
COVID
Real estate is much like a stock; it fluctuates depending on outside influences. For example, when COVID hit, people were stuck up north inside during the middle of winter. Although we had to isolate here in Florida, we could play golf, ride bikes in the sunny weather and even swim in our private pools.
When people contemplate their quality of life, many decide to move or purchase a vacation home in a warmer climate, such as Florida.
Digital Nomads
Working from became more common after COVID. Employees proved their productivity working from home was equal to or even better than in an office environment. So, if you could work from anywhere, wouldn’t you rather be by the beach or your pool?
Because of the change in workspace, many people choose a warm and tax-friendly location such as Lakewood Ranch.
Weather
Most people who relocate to the Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch area typically come from the Midwest and East Coast of the United States.
So, if the northern and midwestern sections of the U.S. experience harsh winters and sub-zero temperatures, demand for a home in Florida increases.
Even though this is only the beginning of February, winter started early with heavy snow, ice, and below-average temperatures.
Interest Rates
Do interest rate fluctuations impact the housing market in Florida? It depends on where you live. Rate hikes are not as important in areas with a high rate of second homes or retirees. Why? Usually, these buyers have a significant equity position or pay cash for their homes.
🧐Are Housing Prices Dropping in Lakewood Ranch?
🏡 Are Home Prices Dropping in Lakewood Ranch?
There’s been talk about home prices coming down, but is that true for Lakewood Ranch? Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s happening in the market right now.
📊 Market Overview
- Home sales in Lakewood Ranch follow seasonal trends, peaking during snowbird season (late December–May).
- July sees a final surge before demand slows in late summer and fall.
- Early 2025 data shows more homes for sale and fewer pending sales than the 5-year average, indicating a shift in supply and demand.
📈 What’s Driving the Market?
1️⃣ COVID’s Impact: Many buyers, especially from colder states, moved to Florida for a better quality of life. That drove prices up betweenn 2020-2023
2️⃣ Remote Work: Digital nomads and work-from-home professionals chose tax-friendly, warm-weather states like Florida.
3️⃣ Weather: Harsh winters up north tend to push more buyers toward Lakewood Ranch.
4️⃣ Interest Rates: Higher rates have less impact here since many buyers pay cash or have significant equity.
🏠 Are Prices Dropping?
- More homes are on the market than in previous years, especially in zip code 34202, which now has nearly ¾ of a year’s worth of inventory.
- Buyers are negotiating more—getting an average 5.4% discount off listing prices.
- Some sellers are adjusting their prices to stay competitive, while others are holding firm.
🔮 What’s Next?
- Factors like bad weather up north and potential interest rate drops could increase demand this spring.
- The market is shifting, but Lakewood Ranch remains highly desirable—so while buyers have more room to negotiate, prices may not fall significantly.
📌 Bottom Line: More homes are available, and buyers have more leverage, but strong demand could keep the market competitive.
✅Home prices in Lakewood Ranch declined in the last quarter of 2024.
✅Early 2025 data shows an increase in inventory and a slight decrease in demand.
✅While buyers now have more negotiating power (with an average 5.4% discount off listing prices), houses are still selling.
✅The market remains desirable for retirees and out-of-state buyers.
💰As of early 2025, Lakewood Ranch is shifting toward a buyer’s market due to increased home inventory and fewer pending sales.
📉However, because it remains one of Florida’s most desirable master-planned communities, well-priced homes in high-demand neighborhoods are still selling quickly.
💸It’s possible that Lakewood Ranch home prices could dip slightly if inventory continues to rise and demand slows. However, factors like bad winter weather in the Northeast/Midwest and continued migration to Florida could stabilize prices.
I have been in real estate sales for over 24 years. I am originally from the Midwest and have lived in beautiful Florida for over a decade. My career sales are over 2,300 homes sold. There aren’t too many obstacles I haven’t encountered throughout my work history. I provide you with honest advice backed by years of experience and understand that a real estate purchase or sale is your top priority.
Nationally recognized. Licensed FL Real Estate Instructor. Contact me at SandyWilliamsFLA@gmail.com or call 941-564-9491
